Projected Forest Fire Severity Level, 2050 to 2059

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Abstract

Areas with high severity levels are projected to expand into the central and northern parts of the Prairies, north-eastern British Columbia, and south-central Yukon. The projections for the forest fire danger levels were based with relation to global warming for the period of 2050 to 2059. The warming impacts may include more frequent and severe fires, shorter growth periods between fires, proportionally younger stands, and a decrease in the carbon storage of northern Canadian forests. The Seasonal Severity Rating, which is a measure of fire danger conditions over a complete fire season, has a relative scale with values above 6 being extreme.

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The Theme

Forest fires in Canada's boreal forests burn an average of 2.5 million hectares annually. Fire is a natural and necessary force, shaping the landscape and ensuring the healthy growth of new forests. The frequency, extent and impact of boreal fires are primarily controlled by fire management measures, short-term weather conditions, as well as the age structure of the forest. Climate simulations, which were generated from four Global General Circulation Models, were used to project forest fire danger levels with relation to global warming.

The Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR) is a measure of fire danger conditions over a complete fire season. The SSR is developed by averaging daily values over the season. The scale shown is relative, with values above 6 being extreme. A real value of zero is only possible in remote cold regions where no fire danger exists in the summer months.

The following animation is created to show the projected changes in forest fire severity levels across Canada from 1980 to 1989 base period to the end of the century.

Projected Change

This map shows that the areas with extreme fire danger levels, as shown on forest fire severity map for the period 1980 to 1989, will expand and the fire season will lengthen by the mid of the current century, due to a warming climate. Historically, the regions having the most significant forest fire activity in Canada have been in west-central Canada. Under the warming climate, the areas with high severity levels are projected to expand into the central Prairies, northeastern British Columbia and south-western Yukon for the period 2050 to 2059.

Moreover, the warming impacts may include more frequent and severe fires, shorter growth periods between fires, proportionally younger stands, and a decrease in the carbon storage of northern Canadian forests.

Data Source

This map was prepared by Brian Stocks and his colleagues at the Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada.

The digital data for this map can be downloaded here.