National Climate Change Maps

Methodology

1. These map layers use a subset of the Coupled General Circulation Model 2 (CGCM2) data, showing the period 2040 to 2060. The Northern Forestry Centre downloaded the CGCM2 data and calculated the differentials between the projections and the 1961 to 1990 normals for both temperature and precipitations.
2. The Great Lakes Forestry Centre (GLFC) interpolated the data set to a finer spatial scale, using the ANUSPLIN statistical analysis and interpolation software package.
3. GLFC added the 2040 to 2060 data to the 1961 to 1990 normals of Canada at the finer scale (for more details, refer to McKenney et al. 2001 in References and Links).
4. GLFC processed the monthly, annual and seasonal means with in-house SAS programs. The summer seasonal mean used June, July and August data, while that for winter used December, January and February data. The output data files were then saved.
5. GLFC then created surface coefficient files by running ANUSPLIN 4.1 with the data files from step 2 as input files. The output surfaces and the surface statistics log files were saved.
6. GLFC then created an ARC/INFO grid by running the grid program, LAPGRD, to get output as a digital elevation model. Steps 2 to 4 were also used to create the maps of minimum temperature and of precipitation.
7. The grid was then classified and polygonized, then re-projected and saved as an ArcView shapefile.
8. The values for the temperature variables are the differentials from the 1961 to 1990 CGCM2 average compared to the 2040 to 2060 time period. For precipitation variables, the maps show the ratio of 2040 to 2060 averages to those for the 1961 to 1990 period.