Projected Change in Mean Annual Temperatures Relative to 1961 to 1990 Average: Year 1995 to 2070

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The animation displays maps of temperature differences from the 1961 to 1990 reference period. The temperature changes are those simulated by the CCCma global climate model (CGCM2) and are the sum of a climate change "signal" and of "natural climate variability". The climate change "signal" is the result of projected changes in atmospheric GHG concentrations and aerosol loadings due to human activities (following the IS92a scenario). The "natural variability" is temperature fluctuations, both positive and negative, which occur naturally and independently of the human induced climate change. The climate change signal is small at the beginning of the period compared to the natural variability (the regions of negative temperatures in the early period are a consequence of the natural variability) but the human induced climate warming emerges clearly as time goes on.

The Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) of Environment Canada developed the climate model and produced the simulation. The interpolation of the data to finer spatial scales and the preparation of the data and images for the animation were done by the Canadian Forest Service of Natural Resources Canada. The change in temperatures for each year was calculated by averaging the changes in temperatures for the past five years (e.g. the change in temperatures for 1995 is the average of the simulated changes in temperatures for 1991 to 1995). For global climate change animations, please go to CCCma's animations.