An Aging Population

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An Aging Population? One of the most dramatic demographic trends in the world today is the aging of the population: an increase in the proportion of senior citizens relative to the youth and working age population. The reasons for this trend, "the greying of society", are often complex. They include, or will include in the next decade or so, the tremendous impact of the "baby boomer" generation, increases in life expectancy, changes in fertility patterns and for many geographical locations, out-migration of the younger members of society.

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The demographic and economic forces associated with population aging will challenge health and social services leaders and policy-makers in the coming decades. In terms of health, some of the implications of an aging population include:

• increases in diseases and disabilities associated with aging and therefore the need to provide relevant care, especially in terms of chronic physical and mental health problems
• changes in the skill sets of our health care providers (physicians, nurses, etc.) that will be required to respond to the needs of the elderly
• shifts in the delivery of formal health care services, particularly increased long-term care
• an increase in the number of informal caregivers (unpaid family and friends) of the elderly in community settings and the need to provide supports for those caregivers

In a recent note in the newsletter of the Canadian Medical Association, a rural physician states that "the people we serve tend to be older, poorer and have more serious medical problems" (Vann, 2000). The focus of this section of the Rural Health issue is to examine the first part of Vann's statement. Is the rural population of Canada older? Is the demographic aging process faster in rural areas compared with urban areas? Some of these questions can be addressed by examining what is known as the "old-age dependency ratio".

Old-age Dependency Ratio Defined

Age dependency ratios tell us how many young people (under 15 years of age) or older people (over 64 years of age) depend on people of working age (15 to 64 years). Various formulations of these ratios are available but the old-age dependency ratio used in this discussion is constructed using the following equation:

Old-Age Dependency Ratio = (P65+ / P15-64) * 100

where:

P65+ = population aged 65 years or more

P15-64 = population aged 15 to 64 years

In other words an old-age dependency ratio of 17.5 indicates that there are 17.5 people 65 years or older for every 100 people 15 to 64 years old. Old-age dependency ratios have been computed for CDs, provinces/territories and Canada for the years 1991 through to 2000.

Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 1991

In 1991, 11.5% of the Canadian population was 65 years of age or older. The provincial and territorial variations in this percentage are shown in Figure 1. Nunavut had the lowest proportion (1.9%) while Saskatchewan had the highest proportion (14.1%) of seniors.

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Figure 1. General Age Structure, 1991

These proportions are echoed using old-age dependency ratios (Table 1).

Table 1. Old-age Dependency Ratios by Province/Territory and for Canada, 1991

Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 2000

In 2000, 12.5% of the Canadian population was 65 years of age or older. The provincial and territorial variations in this percentage are shown in Figure 2. As in 1991, Nunavut had the lowest proportion (2.6%) while Saskatchewan had the highest proportion (14.5%) of seniors.

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Figure 2. General Age Structure, 2000

These proportions are echoed using old-age dependency ratios (Table 2).

Table 2. Old-age Dependency Ratios by Province/Territory and for Canada, 2000

1991 and 2000 Differences in Old-Age Dependency Ratios

Figure 3 shows the steady climb in the old-age dependency ratio for the period from 1991 to 2000. Even during this relatively short period of time the old-age dependency ratio has risen from 16.9 to 18.3.

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Figure 3. Old-Age Dependency Ratio, Canada 1991-2000

However, the change in the old-age dependency ratio has not been uniform throughout all of the provinces and territories of Canada (Table 3). In this table, provincial/territorial old-age dependency ratios for the year 2000 have been divided by the respective ratios from 1991. A value of 1.0 would indicate no change; a value greater than 1.0 indicates that there has been an increase in the proportions of seniors dependent on the working age population; and a value less than 1.0 indicates that the proportion of dependent seniors has decreased.

Table 3. Comparison of 1991 and 2000 Old-age Dependency Ratios

These old-age dependency ratios provide an indication of the aging of the Canadian population and should be read in conjunction with the age and age structure maps and discussions found elsewhere in the Atlas.