Old-age Dependency Ratios, 2000

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Abstract

This map shows the pattern of age-dependency ratio values for census divisions based on data collected in 2000. The ratio is measured as the number of people 65 years of age or older for every 100 people of working age (15 to 64 years of age). The geographic distribution shows the predominance of very low values for this ratio in rural, non-agricultural areas, notably in the territories and in the northern parts of the larger provinces. In contrast high values occur for most agricultural areas The ratio value for Canada as a whole in 2000 was 18.3.

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Age dependency ratios tell us how many young people (under 15 years of age) or older people (over 64 years of age) depend on people of working age (15 to 64 years). Various formulations of these ratios are available but the old-age dependency ratio used in this discussion is constructed using the following equation:

Old-Age Dependency Ratio = (P65+ / P15 to 64) * 100

where:

P65+ = population aged 65 years or more

P15-64 = population aged 15 to 64 years

In other words an old-age dependency ratio of 17.5 indicates that there are 17.5 people 65 years or older for every 100 people 15 to 64 years old. Old-age dependency ratios have been computed for Census Divisions (CDs), provinces/territories and Canada for the years 1991 through to 2000.

For this map, old-age dependency ratios for the year 2000 have been mapped by census division using the same five mapping classes as for the map of 1991 old-age dependency ratios: Very Low (2.60 to 11.99), Low (12.00 to 16.99), Medium (17.00 to 21.99), High (22.00 to 26.99) and Very High (27.00 to 40.60). The 2000 average old-age dependency ratio for Canada as a whole had risen to 18.3.

As with the 1991 map, one of the most striking images provided by this map is the predominance of very low old-age dependency ratios in the territories, in the northern CDs of all provinces west of Ontario, and in northern Quebec. The north-south contrast continues to be evident. Even more striking, however, is the fact that far more CDs are classified on this map with higher old-age dependency ratios. The higher mapping classes have "crept" northward in all provinces from Quebec to British Columbia and "spread" throughout the Atlantic provinces. Most CD's have moved up at least one class.

In both urban and rural areas of Canada, old-age dependency ratios have risen over the 1991 to 2000 period by approximately 2 percentage points, a significant increase in just this short period of time. And, the full impact of the Baby Boomer generation, increased life expectancy, and lowered fertility rates have yet to be felt!

Old-age dependency ratios continue to be higher in rural areas of Canada. This is illustrated in Figures 1a and 1b. In Figure 1a, mean old-age dependency ratios are shown for predominantly urban areas (16.0), intermediate areas (18.9), and predominantly rural areas (20.3). In Figure 1b the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) categories of predominantly urban and intermediate are grouped together but the predominantly rural areas are separated in terms of their relative location to urban or metropolitan areas. A slightly different story is told. Once again, most rural areas have the higher old-age dependency ratios: adjacent to metropolitan areas, 20.7; and not adjacent, 22.2. However, on average northern areas (as illustrated on this map) have significantly lower old-age dependency ratios (8.8). All of the average old-age dependency ratios in 2000 are higher than those of 1991.

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Figure 1a. Average Old-age Dependency Ratios in Canada, 2000 (based on OECD urban-rural Classifications)

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Figure 1b. Average Old-age Dependency Ratios in Canada, 2000 (based on metro adjacency categories)