Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions, 1998 to 2010

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Abstract

The regional trends of greenhouse gas emissions for the period 1990 to 2020 are shown here. Also shown is a projection of regional carbon intensity in terms of tonnes of carbon dioxide per million dollars of Real Domestic Product. This map shows long-term greenhouse gas emissions growth on a provincial and territorial basis. The pattern of emissions growth varies across provinces, largely reflecting the distribution of energy sources available, the existence of energy production, and the nature of manufacturing activities and projected population growth. In relative terms, the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to experience the largest increases between 1990 and 2010. In absolute terms, Alberta and Ontario are expected to experience the largest increases in emissions.

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The Theme

This map shows the regional trends of greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions for the period 1990 to 2020. The values of emissions for 1990 and 1998 are based on historical data, while those for 2010 and 2020 represent the most current greenhouse gas projection by Natural Resources Canada as of the date of publishing for this map (August 2001).

This map also shows a projection of regional carbon intensity in terms of tonnes of carbon dioxide per million dollars of Real Domestic Product (RDP). Higher carbon intensities (identified by a dark green color on the map) means that the economies of these regions use comparatively more carbon-content fuel per million dollars of RDP to produce goods and services.

All the GHG statistics are represented on a provincial basis, except for British Columbia and the Territories, for which only regional aggregate statistics are available (British Columbia makes up about 95% of the population in the British Columbia and Territories region). The provincial statistics for each of the Atlantic provinces can be viewed by zooming in on this region.

Interpretation

This map shows long-term GHG emissions growth on a provincial and territorial basis. The pattern of emissions growth varies across provinces, largely reflecting the distribution of energy sources available, the existence of energy production, and the nature of manufacturing activities and projected population growth. The major highlights of emissions growth in the provinces and territories are:

• In relative terms, the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan are expected to experience the largest increases between 1990 and 2010. Emissions for British Columbia are expected to increase by 38%, while those for Alberta and Saskatchewan each may increase by 40%. By contrast, emissions in Quebec are expected to increase by only 11%.
• In absolute terms, Alberta and Ontario are expected to experience the largest increases in emissions. Between 1990 and 2010, emissions in Alberta, which is the principal oil and natural gas producing province, are expected to increase by 67 Mt (where Mt means millions of tones of carbon dioxide equivalent), while emissions in Ontario - Canada's industrial heartland and most populated province - are expected to increase by 31 Mt.
• Between 1990 and 2010, emissions in the Atlantic region are expected to increase by 23%. Out of the Atlantic provinces, Newfoundland and Labrador will experience the largest percentage increase, due to increased economic activities resulting from offshore oil production projects such as Hibernia and Terra Nova.

Data Source

The projections of provincial GHG emissions were produced by the Analysis and Modelling Division of Energy Sector, Natural Resources Canada. The projection methodology starts by defining the major framework assumptions upon which the results are constructed. These assumptions concern: energy prices, the United States' economy and energy market, Canadian macroeconomic performance, Canadian demographics, and Canada's current policy stance. The assumptions to construct this framework were developed by or through consultation with international experts and private consultants.

A modelling structure that combines econometric, end-use, and process techniques is then used to project the energy demand, supply and associated emissions. The preliminary results were shared with stakeholders for their input and their advice was then incorporated into the final version of the projections.

The digital data for this map can be downloaded here.