Projected Forest Fire Severity Level, 2090 to 2099

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Abstract

Areas with high severity levels are projected to expand into the central and northern parts of the Prairies, north-eastern British Columbia, south-central Yukon, and north-western Ontario. The projections for the forest fire danger levels were based with relation to global warming for the period of 2090 to 2099. The warming impacts may include more frequent and severe fires, shorter growth periods between fires, proportionally younger stands, and a decrease in the carbon storage of northern Canadian forests. The Seasonal Severity Rating, which is a measure of fire danger conditions over a complete fire season, has a relative scale with values above 6 being extreme.

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The Theme

Forest fires in Canada's boreal forests burn an average of 2.5 million hectares annually. Fire is a natural and necessary force, shaping the landscape and ensuring the healthy growth of new forests. The frequency, extent and impact of boreal fires are primarily controlled by fire management measures, short-term weather conditions, as well as the age structure of the forest. Climate simulations, which were generated from four Global General Circulation Models, were used to project forest fire danger levels with relation to global warming.

The Seasonal Severity Rating (SSR) is a measure of fire danger conditions over a complete fire season. The SSR is developed by averaging daily values over the season. The scale shown is relative, with values above 6 being extreme. A real value of zero is only possible in remote cold regions where no fire danger exists in the summer months.

The following animation is created to show the projected changes in forest fire severity levels across Canada from 1980 to 1989 base period to the end of the century.

Projected Change

Compared to the forest fire severity maps for the period 1980 to 1989 and 2050 to 2059, this map shows that by the end of the current century, the areas with extreme fire danger levels will further expand, and the fire season will further lengthen, due to a warming climate. Historically, the regions having the most significant forest fire activity in Canada have been in west-central Canada. Under the warming climate, the areas with high severity levels are projected to expand, for the period 2090 to 2099, into the central and northern parts of the Prairies, northeastern British Columbia, south-central Yukon, and north-western Ontario.

Moreover, the warming impacts may include more frequent and severe fires, shorter growth periods between fires, proportionally younger stands, and a decrease in the carbon storage of northern Canadian forests.

Data Source

This map was prepared by Brian Stocks and his colleagues at the Canadian Forest Service, Natural Resources Canada.

The digital data for this map can be downloaded here.